I have been in the weeds thinking about what the pattern is in S&P 500 futures and been following rabbit holes which diverted me from updating the usual suspects. I will make a combined post this evening to make up for it. Meanwhile, I thought I would show my work.
First, back to the somewhat larger picture. If bears were to strike in accordance with the alternate count, they missed their chance to press down from 3797.25. Bears did take a brief swing but held above 3765.25, an old resist that turned support of the family working with retraces to the August high.
What I have been chewing through time looking at is how to count out the advance thus far and this is what I have come up with. The most difficult thing is to decide where to start counting. A pro tip to anyone that counts their own charts. When in doubt, fall back to a structure that makes sense and work out from that. In this case, the form up from the early afternoon low yesterday through the overnight and into this morning had a bit of a channel going and a thrust. That looks like a low degree one through five. From there, I’m less certain what to do with the early parts of the advance but this is what I’m going with. It measures out relatively well. Net, the morning high today looks like a wave (III) high followed by a wave (IV) candidate at the early afternoon low. You can make a case for (IV) becoming more complex and retesting either 3767.50 or 3750.00 before resuming the climb. Next would be a push to say 3824.50 to 3840.50 overnight or early in the morning tomorrow. That could turn into a wave [III] high that falls short of the 3861.75 area on the 240-minute chart above. That would then chew through time possibly setting up the main event for late Thursday or early Friday morning with the NFP numbers.