Crude oil is probably pointed downward now
Also a note about our summer subscription special
Crude oil futures appear to have begun the next big downward push which could persist into autumn or winter. On a faster time frame though, a minor upward retrace is probably due.
In this update, we show our current Elliott wave count which is slightly revised from what we posted here in April. We believe the sideways corrective pattern (b) finished with the April 2024 high, making the more recent decline likely the first segment of downward wave (c).
Our Elliott wave methodology helps subscribers to be prepared ahead of time to catch the trades. Right now you can start a subscription with 20% off the regular monthly or annual price. Take advantage of this offer by July 4!
Even though we think the larger trend is now downward, there are several reasons to watch for a minor upward retrace from near the current area. We see geometric support from one of the parallels in a long-term channel, and there's also Fibonacci-related support near 77.40. In addition we note that the CCI momentum indicator is testing its zero line now, which often coincides with the start of a retracement, and we see that the 17-week cycle should be on an up-swing.
Beyond those factors, the recent minor decline can also be counted as being a possibly complete sub-wave with five segments. This is visible on a daily chart, not shown here but available to subscribers.
The bigger price move probably will come as the middle segment of downward wave (c), and bears will probably fish for entries if price tests either of the resistance areas shown at 82.90 or (less likely) at 87.40.
Eventually we would like to see price test near 46.30 or the zone near 38.40-37.20 to finish wave (c), and a very rough timing projection based on the 17-week price cycle suggests CL might reach the low around December. After that, price should embark on the next big upward push.
Get daily updates for this and other major markets at Trading On The Mark. Take advantage of our membership special with 20% off the subscription price if you act before July 4.