First Look: 2022-07-25
S&P 500 futures bounced overnight to put in a Globex high around 7:30 this morning against a 62% retrace of the decline from last Friday. That is consistent with my idea that they probably spend a day or two probing the edges of the range carved out on Friday. Was that a successful test of the top of the range and now on the way to test the lower end, or will they try for the top again first? My bias is to the latter, though Dow futures are soft right at the open.
I have long been suspicious of moves pre-market and thus am sticking to the view that there is likely at least a retest of the morning high later today if not slightly beyond to 3997.50. I’m leaving a retrace tool set to 1/8ths on the chart for your reference. I usually take my tools off the charts so as to make them easier to read but since I expect quite a bit of probing back and forth, this makes sense. Short-term, futures need over 69.25 to turn a bit more bullish.