So far SPX is on plan with the forecast from last night, that a retrace was due. I’m penciling in the morning low as the first leg in a wave (IV). Therefore, not surprised by the rally off the open. The problem is what happens from here. I’m thinking it needs to spend more time sideways or it might make a run at lower support before pushing to a new swing high.
Crude is extending lower today as it is leaning on the next target of 73.80 as I type. While I think it likely that crude will push lower in the future, I’m reluctant to chase it down now. Next step down if needed at 72.20. A recovery of 74.70 means a bounce is starting.
A quick look at the Dollar Index. DX finally pushing over 106.20 is a positive for USD and a negative for DX crosses and precious metals. Also means the equity rally is probably on borrowed time.
Have a good weekend.