S&P 500 following the morning plan so far with an initial morning move down, but effort put in to recover and now hovering around the middle of the morning range. As stated in the morning post, I think it normal to get a wave [IV] consolidation in the day session. Next step for a textbook impulse up off the hypothesized wave iv low is a thrust up in [V] either late today or early tomorrow. With the NFP number in the morning before the open, they may save the thrust up for the number and just trade sideways the rest of the day. Bears don’t have anything to work with till SPX is under 4040. Bulls need a break above 4081 to get the thrust to a new swing high started.
I’m keenly interested in the Euro and USD as I think we are pretty close to an important inflection point. We should now be in the last stages of a five wave move up from the early November low which could complete (c) of [iv]. Would be bears need confirmation before getting enthusiastic like a fall back under 1.0480 and later 1.0408.
And to wrap up this post, let us take a peek at how Nat Gas has been doing. So far, the forecast for a new swing low under that of October is still on track as NG is slipping under 6.80. Worth watching over the next week or two for a retest or minor new low.