Midday Update: 2023-01-04

Crude extends lower

CL fell under initial supports this morning and trying to stretch for the next at 72.50. While under 74.00, CL could extend to tap 72.50 or 71.85. I’m penciling this in as the first impulse down from wave iv and will be watching for a bounce to form a lower high. Using the current low, first resistance for a lower high, a wave [II], is at 76.10. Deep wave [II] retraces values at 78.30 and 79.35.

Late in wave [I] of v

The S&P 500 is on plan with a rise today though there was a head fake lower first. Probably see some consolidation in the early afternoon waiting for the FOMC minutes. If the market is not distressed by anything in the minutes, SPX can extend toward 3888 if not 3917.

Working on c of (ii)

Dropping to a lower time frame and using futures, I’m thinking we are in wave [III] of c of (ii). My bias is up but I don’t want to be overly clever as I think we are creeping towards an important lower high and could see sharp moves lower in the not-too-distant future. I find it disturbing that Microsoft is down around 5% as I type this.

Working on wave [III]?