Midday Update: 2023-01-09
Initial follow-through up of the move from Friday in the equity indices
S&P 500 and other equity indices extended their gains from last Friday this morning. I’m treating this rise as a lower degree of third that may have completed late this morning thus would go into a consolidation in wave four. Initial may be found at old resistance at 3931 and could even allow SPX to extend to 3961 though I think it pretty late to count on continuation high prior to an observable consolidation. Next supports are to be found at 3914 and 3897. After the consolidation, we will see if SPX can try to push for the 62% retrace and perhaps the overhead gap fill on say Wednesday.
I’ve had a request to revisit Natural gas. This down cycle has extended lower that I had expected. Since the low last week created a new low to that of early 2021, it would be tempting to restart the count from the low from last week. However, because I was anticipating a [b] wave low in form, I’m going to maintain my count at it is and look for a five wave advance from nearby up into May of this year. First step for would be bulls is to recover 4.18 with additional confirmation above 4.44.
On a daily chart, counting the drop from August of last year is a little aggressive as it isn’t clear that one more up and down movement doesn’t show up to complete five waves down. That said, a low here does work with the dominant cycle so perhaps an aggressive trader could try for a recovery though there is danger while under 4.81 and 5.29 of a retest of the low or new low.