Midday Update: 2023-01-11

Equity indices broadly on track easing up into the CPI number tomorrow

The S&P 500 is on track with the primary hypothesis of higher into the CPI number. There was a minor retrace in the day session morning and that may persist with a net sideways move into the early afternoon. Overall, SPX above 3926 is bullish and keeps the door open to push for 3955 or 3964.

Late in c of (ii)?

The expected crude pop up is kicking in this morning with the break over 76.50. Now should try for 78.10 or 79.30. It is worth noting that a third and a ‘c’ wave behave in a similar fashion. Why mention this now? While I have this labeled as rising in a low degree third wave, it could turn out to be a ‘c’ and thus forming a lower high to the high early in the year. Net, fair to be bullish short-term but may want to flatten out or otherwise manage ahead of the CPI number Thursday morning.

Rising in a low degree third or ‘c’

I’m watching this chart closely. VIX could be working on a cycle low in this area. I think it dangerous to chase the equity indices up at this point.

A low into the CPI?