Midday Update: 2023-01-11
Equity indices broadly on track easing up into the CPI number tomorrow
The S&P 500 is on track with the primary hypothesis of higher into the CPI number. There was a minor retrace in the day session morning and that may persist with a net sideways move into the early afternoon. Overall, SPX above 3926 is bullish and keeps the door open to push for 3955 or 3964.
The expected crude pop up is kicking in this morning with the break over 76.50. Now should try for 78.10 or 79.30. It is worth noting that a third and a ‘c’ wave behave in a similar fashion. Why mention this now? While I have this labeled as rising in a low degree third wave, it could turn out to be a ‘c’ and thus forming a lower high to the high early in the year. Net, fair to be bullish short-term but may want to flatten out or otherwise manage ahead of the CPI number Thursday morning.
I’m watching this chart closely. VIX could be working on a cycle low in this area. I think it dangerous to chase the equity indices up at this point.
Thanks for the Bonus (Vix + Crude oil). Amazing is your cycle to discern upward or downward move (i.e : Crude oil)