S&P 500 futures started the day strong after basing around initial support of 4045.75 at approximately 7:00am this morning. A rally from there ran through into the day session so as to allow for the first overhead gap to be filled in cash in the late morning. SPX has since drifted down from that area though it is too early to say if that was the high of [C] of ii, though it is an aggressive candidate. Would be bears are in better shape once SPX drops down under 4053. The nano count is not clear to me and thus I can’t rule out another attempt to push into 4079 to 4090 late in the day today or early tomorrow. My sense is that the reaction to Powell speaking tomorrow morning at 10:00am will determine if we have a lower high set here early in the week or have to wait till Friday. I would like the next gap to remain unfilled, but my bearish bias may be poking through when I say that.
You know that I have been expecting a minor retrace in the Dollar Index and bounce in Euro to correspond with this equity bounce. Euro is on track with that hypothesis as it climbed out of the support at 1.0605 on the intraday chart and retested the high on March 1st. this morning. That can qualify as ‘c of (ii)’ complete. Would be bears now need Euro to start spending time under 1.0679 as first confirmation of a reversal.