There was a flush in S&P 500 futures to retest the low from yesterday before a swift recovery and more prior to the open. Since the day session open, it has been a slow grind up into the late morning when SPX started to poke up into the first target zone for a possible wave [IV] around 3934. While above 3914, I can’t rule out a try to test the next zone overhead at 3944-3950. I do think it is a little late to chase up, but it is admittedly aggressive to fade till under 3914 and later 3904. I still think there is unfinished business lower but not sure how much they get that rolling this afternoon.
Just for more context, here is a 15min chart of E-Mini Dow Futures. Note how the high in the late morning was against negative divergence on the adaptive CCI. This occurred under the highs form the early morning highs from Monday and that of late Friday afternoon. Bears need under the moving averages to really get traction, say 32350.
Bonds are down pretty hard this morning. I have been skeptical of the rise but not quite sure which pattern to apply in the short term. I remain skeptical but I can’t pound the table to short while above 129^25 as they might still try for a new swing high. Par of the problem is that I’m not sure to shop for a three wave move up from the March 2nd low, or a five wave move. As the following chart is labeled, we should get one more high but my confidence in that is lacking.
Nice to see crude working lower though there was a bounce to retest the break of 74.50. Now I think CL should press for 70.60 if not lower.