Midday Update: 2023-04-25

Crude and equities moving lower

Let’s look at crude first. CL failed to get on top of 78.90 and promptly fell hard to a new low under that of April 21st. I’d like to see CL attempt to fill the gap around 75.70 if not punch a little under it to test 75.10. I suppose an alternate count could be that the high on the 12th was all of wave iv and now late in the first impulse down. The implications are pretty similar to the count I’ve been using but imply any future bounce will be for a lower high versus the wave count that I’m using now is a little more flexible as a new swing high wouldn’t be a deal breaker for the overall bearish picture. I don’t think that has to be worked out now, just letting you know what I’m thinking about.

Would like the gap lower to be filled

How about checking in on what is going with the Euro next? Oh, look at that, a lower high held and Euro has been falling pretty hard throughout the day thus far. On minor support now at 1.1000 but I think it will only be a speed bump. Note, this bodes ill for the equity markets in my opinion.

Early in wave [III]

The S&P 500 gapped down and has been on a steady trend lower throughout the morning. I now have to lean to the long-awaited lower high has been set and now early in the move lower. I’m penciling in this drop as a low order of wave three in progress. First target at 4081 but if a third, prefer lower to 4066 or even 4046 before much of a bounce in a small fourth.

Working on wave (III)