Midday Update: 2023-05-18
S&P stumbles at noon
Crude is down today a little more than I expected. Now trading around the 20 period EMA on the 240-minute chart. If this is wave IV of a developing (C) of [B], best crude holds above 71.50. I suppose the alternate count, not on the chart, would be that the May 15th low was only A of (B) and that the high yesterday was B of (B) and need to push down in C of (B). Not a big fan of the alternate but will see what happens here.
S&P 500 futures advanced in the morning to test 4199.25, which is pretty much the last chance for a lower high to that of May 1st. S&P 500 futures need back under 4181.00 to start and better under 4170.50 for confirmation of a reversal lower.
I was asked about what targets make sense in the Nasdaq 100 as it is leading up. I see one point of interest based of retraces at 13920 and another above that based on an extension at 14120. Here is a weekly chart of the E-Mini Nasdaq 100.
I’ve also been staring at the E-Mini Dow Futures. Interesting that YM is on lower highs from last December. Could this be a large leading diagonal down that is just starting to fall from its wave iv?
Last, a look at how bonds are doing. So far, so good as ZB is pushing down against 127^26. I wouldn’t mind lower to 126^20 but fair to manage if you have been riding bonds down as there could be a bounce before heading lower.
Appreciate for the good work. Would be delightful if you maken an analysis on Russell 2000 as well.