Midday Update: 2023-05-26

Equity indexes up prior to long weekend

Since I have been working on this daily chart of SMH, a semiconductor ETF, I might as well post it. Thank the intraday subscriber that asked about it.

The first thing I noticed was that it ran up to the 1.27 expansion of the August to October drop at 134.54 and fell for a few days before the monster gap up. Seems fair to aim for the 1.618 expansion at 148.33 at a minimum. 150.30 and 153.20 are Fibonacci related growth up from the low point of iv and the end of iv. The Schiff Channel has a few hits at the harmonics and guides the possible wave count so keeping it on the chart. Looks late in a five up from the October low. So that means the trend is up right? Be careful with that. My mentor’s mentor always emphasized asking the question, five of what?

Late in a five up from the October low?

I’ve changed my intraday count on CL to this which treats the Wednesday high as a small ‘b’ wave and the drop to the low yesterday as ‘c if II’. This allows CL to catch up to the rise in the equity indices over the next several days to complete a (C) of [B] bounce. CL needs to get above 73.28 to trigger the rise in III.

Early in III of (C) of [B]

The S&P 500 is following the plan put forth last night, that it should rise in a third today. Fair to raise stops if long as I would think we are pretty close to the end of (III) of [V] here in the afternoon.

Late in (III) of [V]

Enjoy the long weekend. Next post will be the weekly charts on Monday.