S&P 500 futures advanced from the CPI number this morning taking the cash market up to the next resistance level of 4373 just post the open. That area has been tested a couple times since. I can’t be excited about higher but can’t rule out an attempt to press for 4387 late in the day. As I type this around 13:30, Dow and NQ futures are not confirming this high, so my bias is to some retrace this afternoon and tomorrow morning prior to the FOMC. That said, be patient and wait for either an intraday break of trend or a tap of 4387. As much as I think there is a significant retrace or more due, I can’t pound the table for materially lower till SPX is under 4298.
Quite pleased with how bonds are doing today. A quick pop up on the CPI to test the resistance at 128^15 and a drop to the bottom of the recent range. Looks like wave [IV] is now set and headed down in [V] of iii.
Gold is pressing down from the shallow retrace level of 1986.10 and down to the bottom of the range. If I’m right about an end to the [B] wave bounce, gold may be in the very early stages of a powerful move lower. The alternative is that the wave [A] low has now been set and any new swing low is an [A] wave candidate. The only way to know will be to observe the price action over the next week or so. As long as bounces are relatively shallow, bulls may take control. It will help if the Dollar Index begins to firm up of the next couple of days.
Thanks Tom. I understand now.
When will you switch over to the Sep contract?