Given that is Opex and the Friday ahead of a three-day weekend, I would think today is a consolidation day in the S&P 500 that trades in a relatively narrow range. Using a 240-minute chart of the E-Mini S&P 500 futures, I would expect trade to be trapped between 4489.00 and 4460.75 for most of the day. Not listed on the chart, 4498.75 might come into play if futures push past 4484.00.
I think we are near peak bullishness nearby. Here is a chart of the percentage of S&P 500 components below the 20-day moving average. The question is if this will be a short-term phenomenon like last August or more of a process that takes a week or three to play out. I lean toward the former. We will see.
I’m not certain how I want to count this, but regardless of the EW count, Dow futures are still under the bounce high of last year. Also, interesting that we are in a window for a projected cycle high. And for icing on the cake, the Wave59 9-5 exhaustion study will have a signal on the close of this candle, a ‘9’.
Enjoy the long weekend. Next post will be late Monday evening.