The S&P 500 gapped under 4406 and the 20 period EMA on the 65-minute chart this morning. The low of the day was short of the ideal 4363 and has been bouncing back to the 20 period EMA. Other resistance just above at old support, 4406, and 4416. Primary hypothesis is that SPX is in a choppy fourth wave with the low today as being the first swing. If wave (IV) was uncharacteristically simple in form, the low of the day could be all of wave (IV).
Bonds seem stuck under 128^15 yet unable to push to a new swing low, yet anyway. Perhaps Powell will say something tomorrow to get the last leg down in iii started.