Midday Update: 2023-11-16

Crude came through with a new swing low

Equity indices have been choppy today but I think they are starting to chop lower in the early stages of a ‘b’ wave retrace. Bears made one attempt to push for the first support of 4498.00 in S&P 500 futures in the late morning but came up short. I think it is telling that 4518.25 has held the bounce which makes me think that bears will take another swing at it this afternoon.

4498.00 should be a magnet today

I think crude is the star today with the follow-through lower to a new swing low. Testing first support at 72.80 here midafternoon. Anyone short should manage but probably a little too aggressive to attempt to buy for a bounce, maybe tomorrow.

Manage if short

Checking in on bonds, it looks like the drop under 114^22 was a fake out as ZB recovered that area today. Probably best to allow for a poke up through 115^23 tomorrow or early next week if the dominant cycle is still working.

Still working on (V)