I had the above question asked so I thought we would address that for something a little different today. The answer is yes and no. Yes, the very bearish pattern in R2K has been invalidated but I think it is now doing something that brings it in line with the S&P 500, still working on a '[b]’ wave.
While the form is different from the Dow, it has done something similar in bouncing hard after a five-wave sequence down from the late July high. That makes the late October low look like ‘c of (b)’ and now late in a (c) of [b] up. First target is at 2074 and a 50% retrace is at 2141.
SPX is still on a lower high. Even if it makes a new high, the pattern would not be invalidated as ‘b’ waves can make new price extremes.
Back to the intraday, S&P 500 futures and YM are down from a high near 13:00 which is consistent with what I’m looking for today. Will see if we get a lower high in the afternoon.
For a peak at sentiment, consider that the % of issues in the S&P 500 under the 50 day moving average is reaching an extreme and there is some timing here. I just can’t see looking to be long in a fresh position other than an opportunistic intraday trade.