Bonds
We now have a visible five wave down in ZB from the February 1st lower high. I’m penciling this in as wave ‘[I] of c of (b)’. Yes, it might drift a little lower, but I think it best to allow for a three-wave bounce for wave ‘[II]’.
Crude Oil
CL bouncing as expected in what looks like a low degree fourth wave that has resistance at 73.10 and 73.90. Form would look better with a new low on the swing but the alternate would have wave ‘[I]’ set and now in the early stages of a wave ‘[II]’ bounce.
Euro
Euro is trying to stabilize at 1.0752. Think it best to allow a minor bounce to around 1.0806 before pressing lower.
Gold
Similar to Euro above, think it best to allow a small bounce in gold before pressing lower. A tap of the 20 period EMA from underneath would look nice.
S&P 500 Futures
Equity indices were soft this morning as initial support broke just after 10:00. That is great right as I’m big picture bearish? Well, not so fast. Yes, I’m pretty bearish but I’m reluctant to read too much into the action on a Monday morning. Sure enough, bulls did come back it and allowed for a pretty decent recovery in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures. I can see two paths from here. The bearish one is illustrated below. Bears need to trickle back into the market from around 4967.75 and push to an eventual new swing low under the morning low to create five waves down from the high late last week.
Nasdaq 100 Futures
The bullish path is outlined on the following chart which is the same as the one above but with the labels on the last swings moved to the right. Here we call the morning low today wave ‘(IV)’ and look for a new high in wave ‘(V)’. As bearish as I want to be, I’m leaning toward this count as NQ has yet to follow the Dow and S&P 500 to a fresh high over that of January 24th.