Midday Update: 2024-03-18

Equity indices up, bonds down

Bonds

ZB is on plan with the intraday hypothesis from last week which is looking for ZB to push down to the 117^24 to 117^08 area in a possible impulse down from the high on March 7th.

Working on wave (I) down?

Crude Oil

If crude is taking the path that I have been suggesting for the last several weeks, we should be getting close to a lower high in wave ii. If however, CL takes the alternate path that I marked on the weekly chart last night, this move is probably part of a third wave of lower degree that might take CL toward the mid to high 80’s. Bears would need a break under 80.05 for first confirmation of a reversal.

If a wave ii, should be near an end

Euro

Euro moved under 1.0918 today in what could be a wave (V) in the first impulse down from the March 8th high. Next little target down is at 1.0900 but I like lower to 1.0870 or 1.0850.

In wave (V) of [I]?

Gold

Gold started the week under 2161.25 but has recovered it. I lean to allowing another high in the swing near 2217.80.

Allowing for another swing high

S&P 500 Futures

Well, I thought there was pretty good bounce or more potential from the area tested o n Friday and that turned out to be the case with a quick rally in the early morning today. The problem for bulls is that the morning advance could be a ‘C’ type move off of a ‘B’ wave low. If so, the morning advance can leak away either later today or tomorrow.

Not clear we see higher today

Publication note: My mom, 80, just had to go to the hospital for the second time in about two weeks. I may very well be late or not publish anything tonight as I check in on her. I think she will be OK, she is in much better shape than two weeks ago, but is having difficulty breathing. I ask your forbearance as I’m a little preoccupied.