S&P 500 Update 2022-08-26
I’m not going to be able to post full intraday charts till this evening when I will do a combined edition post but do want to update where we are in relation to the S&P 500. The central bankers in the US and EU poured cold water on the bounce this morning. There was a wild initial move down and fast deep recovery that was a head fake as the market subsequently fell lower. If you recall the SPX intraday chart from yesterday, I left it saying we are pretty much the limit for a wave [IV]. Well, they made a brief new high over yesterday and fell, thus cementing wave [IV] and today being [V] down. I’ve included an alternate count that would still count out as 3-3-5 for a corrective iv, in blue, but it is low probability at this point. Any bounce over the next week or so is likely to set a lower high into early September. We are still a long way from having any overlap with a wave i and thus technically could be in a fourth, but best to not have high hopes for that. If anything, I’m now worried more about bounces being quite shallow.