Bonds
ZB moved a little lower today, but I have to admit to not having high confidence in lower. Net, late to short, maybe a little early to buy.
Crude Oil
I was too quick in thinking that the wave [IV] correction in crude was complete as it was under pressure early today. There was a nice intraday bounce from 81.00 but that bounce didn’t persist as it is back to just above 81.00 again. Minor bias to another swing low but if CL recovers 81.65 and starts to hold above it, the correction could be done.
Dollar Index
DX pushed up away from 105.57 today in what looks like the end of the minor correction. I do not know if this is the start of a major leg or if there will be another retrace from near 106.80.
Euro
While Euro was down today, I’m not convinced that we have had a deep enough correction higher. Yes, I think Euro has plenty of room to move lower in the medium and long term, but in the short term, I think it would look better with a better bounce first. As to the pattern, I’m not certain but both ways I have labeled the daily and intraday charts would allow more of a bounce. Short term support at 1.0657 and 1.0630.
Gold
I’m counting the drop in gold as (A)-(B)-(C) but could easily instead be (I)-(II)-(III)-(IV)-(V). If it is a five instead of a three, while a bounce is due, it would be for a lower high. I still lean to a new gold high but probably reasonable to take the odds down a bit. First step for a gold bull is to reclaim 2311.75.
S&P 500 Futures
Today started out on plan, testing the range, but broke out the bottom and accelerated lower. I had expected another range bound day waiting for the FOMC. Where does that leave us? The form now has the look of three waves up from the low on the 19th, a corrective form unless it is the first wave of an ending diagonal. I’m going to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt while above 4991.75 to form a higher low and advance.
