The Day Ahead: 2024-07-02
Equity indices rise on the last full day before the Independence Day holiday
Bonds
ZB is attempting to firm up against 116^01 target but wouldn’t call the advance particularly strong. It is possible that there will be another swing low under that of yesterday while under 117^11 since it is not clear that wave (I) is where I have it placed on the intraday chart. It is possible that the wave labels need to be moved one swing to the right which would make this current bounce (IV) of [C] of ii.
Crude Oil
I have promoted the alternate count that I mentioned in the weekly post. From a practical perspective it doesn’t change much in that I think crude is close to a pretty major swing high, it just allows for a high above that of the April high. While above 82.53, a new swing high past that of today is possible. Under 82.57 would be the first evidence that a reversal lower may be taking place.
Dollar Index
DX is pausing a bit which is fair considering the RSI is overbought. I’m assuming that the retrace or consolidation is shallow.
Euro
Not much movement in Euro today as it dipped down to test 1.0755 before bouncing. I favor sideways to lower though might not move much this week.
Gold
Gold managed to hold just under the daily moving averages today. I rate that as a minor positive as at least it held as opposed to falling away. Will see if gold bulls can force a tiny short squeeze by the end of the week.
S&P 500 Futures
I thought it likely that the S&P 500 would find a low early in the week and be bid up into the upcoming holiday and NFP on Friday. There was a retest of 5504.50 support before the open which held followed by buyers acting on the open. Wednesday is an early close with no trading on Thursday. Bias is up to retest the high and might try for the round number, 5600.00.
