The Day Ahead: 2025-07-11
A Summer Friday
Bonds
ZB did bounce from 112^20 but I’m not sure the wave [II] low has been set. There could easily be a push down from 114^05 to a new low on the swing to around 112^06 or 112^02.
Crude Oil
Crude slipped a bit yesterday in a possible ‘[B] of ii’ yesterday though not sure it is complete. I wouldn’t mind a better test of support around 65.80 to 65.20 before climbing toward 71.20.
Dollar Index
DX hugging 97.70 is mildly positive. If DX can continue to hold into the 16th, it has a good chance to push for 99.20 on the next advance.
Euro
The odds that the wave v up from the start of the year in Euro is increasing. I’m open to a minor new high just because the decline to current support is pretty choppy but that can happen in the first wave of a move. I should probably reverse my alternate and primary labeling on these charts to reflect that.
Gold
Gold finally firmed up against 3294.90 and is rising in either a [III] or a [C]. First major target at 3401.50 though expect higher.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures poked to a new high yesterday and has given back that advance overnight. Was the top made? Maybe. What does that portend for today? If bears are in control, it would be nice to get some follow-through lower but allow for a consolidation against 6275.00 intraday support.
