The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-04-22
I still like SPX higher this week
Bonds
I was expecting a retrace in ZB down from 114^31 but to be fair wasn’t thinking it would be quite this sharp. Still prefer a higher low but a minor new low that holds above the low of the year wouldn’t be the end of the world. The last alternate, labeled in red, treats bonds early in a move down that will eventually take out the low from last year.
Crude Oil
Crude is taking the path that I thought SPX would follow, developing a five-wave structure up into a wave ‘a of ii.’ The low on Monday against 62.40 could be ‘(II) of [V] of a’ and work on the rest of the way up over the next few days.
Dollar Index
DX dropped through the 99.20 support that was holding last week and pressed down to just under the next big target at 98.36. I have difficulty being particularly bearish now that DX is down at the bottom of the channel with positive divergence forming on the CCI. I’m calling this a wave iii low and due for a choppy wave iv bounce to develop into at least the end of the month.
Euro
Forecast had been for a minor new high over that of April 11th and we had that happen on Monday. Now I think we should allow for a retrace in a wave iv. The retrace should gain speed once the Euro drops under 1.1530.
Gold
Gold has had quite the burst up in the last couple of weeks that I think is very dangerous to bulls. Can it extend? Certainly, but if GC drops under 3443.15, it is a good idea to allow for a retrace.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures elected to slip under 5262.00 overnight Monday and use a retest of it in the day session morning to push down away from. It then fell through the next support at 5198.25 and within about ten points of the next big support late in the day. The theme I think is the same as I have mentioned before, that a [B] wave low is due and to expect a rise in ‘[C] of a of (ii).’ As you can see from the 240-minute chart, futures have been rising overnight and now are working on recovering 5262.00. I think there is a good chance to fill the gap from last week or just move past to 5344.50 today. That would be about 100 points in the day session which is pretty common at this point.
