The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-05-06
FOMC Eve
Bonds
I’m treating the high on April 30th as a (B) wave and now late in (C) down to complete a wave [II]. It would look best with a little bounce and one more low. Would be bulls need ZB over 115^09 for the first evidence of a reversal up.
Crude Oil
I’m going back to a prior count in CL where the move down from April 23rd is an ‘(A) of [B]'. This leg is lower than I expected but the form is still on track. There are now five waves in this move which works for an (A) wave. Now looking for a three-wave bounce for (B). Initial resistance for a bounce is at 58.40 followed by 59.45.
Dollar Index
The bounce in DX is a little short for a typical iv. It may still be good enough or just the initial bounce of iv. Either way, probably best to assume a push down now into the next cycle inflection on May 12th.
Euro
Euro is down against the initial wave iv support. Short-term bulls need Euro over 1.1395 to get a reversal up started but I’m not optimistic about it getting started prior to Wednesday afternoon.
Gold
I expected gold to firm up against the daily moving averages and support at 3236.90 and indeed it did and then some as it moved up nicely on Monday. I’m expecting this to be a [B] wave in a relatively complex iv. Resistance at 3402.80 and 3423.80.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures opened lower on Monday but spent most of the day attempting to fill the overhead gap which the Nasdaq 100 futures were able to do but S&P 500 futures fell just short of doing so. Is the ‘a’ wave high set? It is certainly in the right area but could try to extend a bit more. Best for short-term bulls that the S&P 500 futures stay above 5651.00. Under 5634.00 is a warning that bears may be starting to take over.
