The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-05-28
FOMC minutes in the afternoon, Nvidia earnings after the bell
Bonds
I’m happy with how ZB is doing thus far as it has held a retest of 111^04 and now engaging with the daily moving averages. Obviously, bulls have work to do here by grinding up through 113^03 and later 114^03 but so far, so good.
Crude Oil
CL is acting like it isn’t quite ready to move lower in (C). Perhaps a couple days of bounce in either a low degree II for a lower high against the May 21st high or perhaps a small B wave if it pokes just above around 64.17 to 64.56.
Dollar Index
I think it best to allow DX to bounce up a bit till the next cycle inflection which is June 2nd. Perhaps this is a low degree wave two in the developing wave v down.
Euro
I’m not sure where we are in the Euro structure. My concern is that I may have been trying to hurry it along and that wave iv is becoming more complex. Minor support at 1.1310 with better at 1.1226 and 1.1121.
Gold
Gold has been consolidating for a few days now. I’m assuming that it is a low degree fourth while above 3261.00 though an alternative is that the larger ‘iv’ is still in development.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 has been moving higher, but I remain skeptical of the recovery. I suppose I may have to allow for a retest of 5994 or even a push to 6062.00 if the market responds favorably to Nvidia earnings. Until then, I think it prudent to keep an eye on resistance at 5949.00 and 5956.50 today. Would be bears need a break under 5917.50 in futures to get a reversal down started.
