The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-05-08
US/UK Trade Deal
Bonds
ZB ran up to and just past 115^09 before drifting back under on early Thursday morning. While under 115^09, a retest of 114^00 or a bit lower is possible.
Crude Oil
CL on plan as it had a small consolidation for the middle of (B) and should now rise in the third segment of (B).
Dollar Index
DX is moving sideways and is about to intersect the top of the channel. That may work for iv as it corrects in time rather than price.
Euro
Little change in Euro as it also moves sideways. At least I can say the RSI has reset on the 240-minute chart.
Gold
My [B] wave idea worked yesterday as GC moved down from 3427.80. I wouldn’t mind better pressure being applied to 3319.00 or 3290.60 for the end of a [C] wave.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures were soft early yesterday and managed to push lower to test 5594.50 after the FOMC statement but bounced up out of it and continued higher after positive trade news. I’m allowing for a minor new high over that of May 2nd but need to be careful as I wouldn’t say higher is required.
