The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-05-16

U of M consumer sentiment in the morning, OPEX

Bonds

Nice rise off the last chance for a higher low in ZB. First major test for bulls is the daily moving averages around 114^22 and just higher at 115^01.

Bulls came through when they had to

Should be up in [III] of iii

Crude Oil

CL behaving as expected with a tiny bounce to retest the top of the 20 EMA on the 240-minute chart. I expect a push down to start early next week.

Early in (C) of [B]

Sideways to slightly higher till Monday

Dollar Index

Not much to add to DX as is sort of runs sideways prior to pushing lower into late next week.

Follow the cycle down next week?

Euro

Little change in the Euro yesterday as it continues to base above 1.1201. Both intraday and daily cycles turn up next week.

Due for a leg up next week?

Due for a turn up next week?

Gold

Gold is trapped between 31.75.40 and 3279.00 for now. I may be skeptical of gold in the medium term, but I think it probably too early to give up on this being a corrective formation in the short-term.

Still working on iv

Can they hold an old support at 3162.40?

S&P 500 Futures

I think there are more than enough squiggles to count this as completed wave ‘a’ and think it foolish to attempt to push up from here. It may not be today as option expiry can lead to a dull day, but I think it best to start thinking more from the short side than being quick to buy any retrace. Under 5943.75 is a minor negative for bulls but the next major level is back down around 5872.00 and just under at 5835.25.

Don’t chase up from here

Looks like a short to me