The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-06-03

Factory orders and JOLTS at 10am

Bonds

Goal for bond bulls is now to hold a higher low and grind up through the daily moving averages. So far, so good.

Trying to grind through the daily moving averages

Working on a higher low

Crude Oil

Crude managed to retest the high from May 20th invalidating the low degree wave II idea. I’m now falling back to the alternative which would call this a low degree B wave high in development. I expect lower into at least next week if not the following week to set a [B] wave low and build a base that allows for a move up into July.

Expect lower into the middle of the month

Next resistance at 64.17

Dollar Index

Bias remains down to at least retest the April low and preferably a minor new low. The danger is truncation develops, and we don’t get the new low.

Bias is to a minor new low

Euro

I’m not certain what form wave v is taking in the Euro. Maybe an ending diagonal is playing out. Another alternative is the high from yesterday is a ‘(B) of [II]’ and now down in ‘(C) of [II].’

Late in v?

Wave [II] may not be over

Gold

I’m penciling in gold working up in wave ‘[III] of v.’ Overhead targets at 3479.95 and 3537.10.

Working on v

Up into [III] of v?

S&P 500 Futures

I’m working on the assumption that a lower high will develop to the high from the end of May. Over 5948.75 invites a push for 5971.75. Would be bears need under 5911.50 to get something started.

Like lower into next week or the next

Expecting a lower high to form