The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-06-24
How fast does the cease fire fall apart? Also, Powell testimony
Bonds
ZB is still having problems with the 114^03 resist as it works on a wave two of fairly low degree.
Crude Oil
I expected crude to move lower in a retrace but I didn’t think it would happen in a day. The forcefulness of the drop increases the chances that the (b) wave high was set at this high. The wave [IV] idea is still alive, but bulls have to get to work soon and not let CL down much lower otherwise there will be overlap with wave [I].
Dollar Index
DX is falling away from 99.45 in what is likely the last parts of a wave v. Should expect a new low under 97.70 at a minimum.
Euro
Euro looks like it is in a small consolidation prior to finishing the five waves up from the low at the start of the year.
Gold
As feared, gold is still working on a wave iv. Targets for a possible ‘[C] of iv’ at 3298.80 and 3241.90.
S&P 500 Futures
Well, yesterday was interesting in the S&P 500 as a gap down on Sunday was initially reversed followed by a move back down on news of Iranian retaliation. However, after it became clear that the retaliation was limited, the market pushed higher and has extended those gains overnight on the ceasefire news. I’m penciling this in as pretty late in a possible ending diagonal up from May 23rd. Has the high already been set in the overnight? Maybe but a little aggressive. Probably better to see if futures can hold 6107.50 or 6088.50 and try to push for at least 6047.75 if not 6153.50 to 6159.00.
