The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-06-18

FOMC

Bonds

So far, the wave [II] idea is working out in ZB as it rises from the intraday support zone and the daily moving averages in the next try to break over 114^03.

Working on breaking over 114^03

Early in [III] up?

Crude Oil

I’m sticking with the idea that CL can use a consolidation period prior to a new high. Resistance at 75.60 and 76.40.

Expecting a consolidation

Nearing a (B) wave high in [IV]?

Dollar Index

DX has bounced a little from the 97.70 support, but it is probably too early to rule out a bit lower to finish off wave v.

One more thrust down needed?

Euro

Thinking Euro can use a small consolidation prior to working higher. Possible that it leaks a little lower in the first stages of the consolidation to test 1.1516 or 1.1507.

A consolidation prior to the final high

Might test lower support prior to a bounce

Gold

Gold is acting like it needs to spend more time running sideways.

Still in a consolidation?

Expect sideways to lower

S&P 500 Futures

My bias is for lower though I have to admit that not much has really changed for the past week or so as S&P 500 futures have been stuck. Would be bears need a break of 6025.00 to get the ball rolling.

So far, just sideways

Can it break this time?