The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-06-26
Can crude stabilize and bounce back a bit?
Bonds
Very little real change in ZB from yesterday though I suppose it is a minor positive that it has spent four days above 114^03. That said, I can’t rule out a retrace to around 113^15 prior to any further advance.
Crude Oil
As I previously mentioned, the steep selloff vastly raises the probability that wave (b) has been set and that the drop is the early phases of (c) down though the wave [IV] is technically still alive. I should probably promote the alternate count to primary on my charts, maybe this weekend. Anyway, short-term CL is moving sideways just above 64.90. I can’t rule out a poke lower but difficult to count the steep intraday drop. I expect some effort at a bounce next month.
Dollar Index
DX finally broke to a new swing low under 97.70 and now has the minimum requirements met for a completed wave ‘v of (c) of [iv].’ Could it extend? Yes, but anyone short should manage. Next cycle inflection is tomorrow.
Euro
It is aggressive, but not crazy, for a bear to begin shopping for a short in the Euro, especially on a fall back under 1.1732 as there now may be a completed five wave count up from the start of the year. At a minimum, anyone long should manage.
Gold
I’m starting to worry that gold may have a truncated high. I know it isn’t pretty, but with DX being close if not at a completed count, and crude falling out of bed, I think it is worth considering that gold may reverse lower. Short-term, looks lower for a better test of 3298.80 or 3241.90.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures slipped back a bit on Wednesday but recovered overnight and pushed to another target at 6172.00 this morning. 6172 is related to the prior resistance, the difference being if you measure up from a Globex low or a day session low. I can’t be bullish but acknowledge that fading is extremely aggressive while above 6153.50.
