The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-06-20
Monthly option expiry
Bonds
The resistance on the daily chart, 114^03 continues to hold. I’m moving my intraday count one swing to the right which puts the hypothesized [I] on the June 12th high and makes this drop the tail end of [II]. I suppose the prior count could still be in effect if 112^26 holds as support which would make a 1-2-1-2 count a possibility.
Crude Oil
Nothing has really changed to deter my view that a consolidation is due prior to a new high. In fact, if anything, the sleeper view would be that the wave (b) wave high was set at the retest of 77.70.
Dollar Index
Primary view is a mild bias to a push down for a new swing low but if DX were to push over 99.95, I would have to consider wave ‘v of (c)’ complete against 97.70.
Euro
Nothing to add to my previous thoughts on Euro other than the price low of [IV] may be set against 1.1516 though probably best to allow for more sideways action prior to a thrust to a new swing high.
Gold
Gold is acting like it is still sideways in a wave iv. If the daily moving averages buckle, and it is leaning hard on them now, allow for a push for at least 3298.80.
S&P 500 Futures
The broad range of 6147.75 to 5990.25 remains undefeated as futures push up away from the bottom of the range yet again. At this point, best to assume a push up to at least 6072.25 as it comes back into to the range. Bears probably have to wait till next week for their next shot.
