The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-06-25

Day two of Powell testimony

Bonds

ZB has poked above 114^03 again but I’m not certain it can hold above on this attempt as it could still be working on a wave [II].

Not sure it can hold above 114^03 on this attempt

Could still be working on wave [II]

Crude Oil

The case for a wave [IV] in crude is not dead but is in trouble. Odds are increasing that the (b) wave high in CL has been set. Next intraday target down is at 62.30 which begins to overlap a possible wave [I]. The overlap would be minimal, and I could overlook it if CL rose quickly after testing the support.

Not looking good for the wave [IV] idea

Probably need a new swing low to complete five waves down

Dollar Index

DX retested the 97.70 support again yesterday. Is that good enough for a completed wave v? Possibly though it would be cleaner with a new swing low.

A new swing low would be ideal but not a sure thing

Euro

I prefer a little higher in Euro to complete five waves up from the start of the year, but it is very late in the move. Bulls should be managing their positions up here.

Late in v

Higher not a sure thing

Gold

Gold is under the daily moving averages, but it still looks like a sideways consolidation from the high back in April.

Late in iv

Initial support at 3298.80

S&P 500 Futures

Nothing really new from yesterday. ES found support from just above 6107.50 and pushed to the next overhead target zone at 6153.50 to 6159.00.

I just can’t see going long up here

Caution against chasing up