The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-06-04
ISM Services PMI in the morning
Bonds
Bonds are trying to base and hold a higher low which is consistent with the primary hypothesis that a wave ii low was set back in May. Supports at 111^29 and 111^03.
Crude Oil
Still looks like a ‘(B) of [B]’ wave high late in development to my eye. Overhead resistance at 64.17 to 64.56.
Dollar Index
Very little real change in DX since yesterday. Basic assumption is for a retest or minor new low to that made in April.
Euro
As stated yesterday, I’m not sure if I should count the rise up from the May low as a developing ending diagonal or a more conventional impulse that is working on a wave [II] retrace. Nearby supports at 1.1333 and 1.1298.
Gold
Gold is holding above the 20 period EMA on the 240-minute chart, and some retrace values at 3363.10 and 3343.90. Should be positive for another thrust up over the next couple of days.
S&P 500 Futures
While I continue to think the low back in early April was the first impulse down in a larger structure, I suppose the alternate is to consider it a fourth of some degree and try to get a five up from it that will eventually lead to a new all-time high. In my primary scenario, we are either seeing a lower high develop against the May 29th high or a minor new high if the May 30th low was the end of a small corrective formation. Either way, a move down for a correction is the next major event to look for. I will look at that primarily as a ‘b’ wave that results in a lower high in ‘c’ in late July or early August. Bulls will assume that any correction is a ‘iv’ and try to push to a new high in ‘v’.
