The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-07-01

ISM, JOLTS, and later Powell

Bonds

Looks like bonds are early in a third up. I wouldn’t mind seeing a minor consolidation before thrusting higher.

Early in wave iii?

A minor consolidation before higher

Crude Oil

I’ve changed my count of crude to reflect the likelihood that the (b) wave high has been set. While CL may bounce a little to around 66.80 or so before another leg down to complete wave ‘i of (c)’ down.

A little lower for i of (c)?

Bias to lower after a tiny consolidation

Dollar Index

DX continues to leak lower to the next target zone of 96.50.

Pushing for next targets

Euro

I’m allowing for another down/up sequence in the Euro before completing five waves up from the start of the year but late in the game.

A down/up sequence left?

A low degree wave three?

Gold

Gold appears to be thrusting up out of a wave iv candidate. I assume GC is working on ‘[I] of v’ at the moment.

Early in wave v

Working on wave [I] of v

S&P 500 Futures

I’m assuming a low degree third was set yesterday and now early in a wave (IV) retrace. Bears need under 6229.25 to get the ball rolling toward 6192.50 or perhaps 6155.50.

A consolidation this week?

Early in a wave (IV)?