The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-07-15
CPI this morning
Bonds
The form for a wave [II] could now be complete in ZB but probably best to look for some confirmation before entering long like a recovery of 113^20.
Crude Oil
CL bounced back to retest resistance at 89.40 and fell away. I’m inclined to treat this move down as part or all of a ‘[B] of ii' which may be close to completion against support at 65.80 to 65.20.
Dollar Index
DX is creeping up to first resistance at 98.26. I wouldn’t be surprised at a small push over that area before a retrace to work on a higher low.
Euro
The Euro has been slipping lower in an overlapping, but trending, fashion for the last week or so. Is that a correction or the first wave of a reversal? I don’t know but would say that the odds of a new high are decreasing but well above zero.
Gold
In a way my view on gold is similar to the Euro. A new high is possible, but the odds are decreasing. It is a minor negative that GC is having trouble staying above the daily moving averages. That said, I would think gold would be able to at least tap 3401.50 if not one of the higher targets before being in real jeopardy.
S&P 500 Futures
Bulls have managed to keep the wheels on, but I still have a bad feeling about this. Whether it be now, a week from now or early August, I think things can go terribly wrong similar to the way they did in February and March. Short-term, path of least resistance is up but be wary of resistance at 6339.50 to 6344.50. I lean to a consolidation developing in the day session today.
