The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2025-11-11
Equity markets up on the end of the government shutdown
Bonds
I know I just posited the idea on the weekly chart that bonds may be stuck for a few weeks in a holding pattern but that may not be the case as I look at lower-level charts. The RSI on the daily chart is in oversold territory, and it looks late in a possible ‘A-B-C’ for a possible wave (II). Mild bearish bias while under 117^10 to allow for a test of lower support at 115^29 or 114^29.
Crude Oil
Thus far, the decline from the swing high on October 24th appears to be corrective and hence I’m inclined to allow for another push up to complete a wave ii. Would be bulls need CL to push over 60.30 and later 60.40 to get that going.
Dollar Index
I wouldn’t mind DX moving a bit lower but beware once currencies begin to trend, the corrections can be small, and they become difficult to count.
Euro
The decline from October 17 in the Euro has been in three waves hence I’m considering the recent low a ‘[B]’ wave inside of a developing wave ‘ii.’ I suppose the minimum needed in the bounce is around 1.1643 but it would be typical to see something more to around 1.1719 prior to a major leg down.
Gold
I’m assuming that gold is now rising in wave [V] but I may be wrong about that as wave [IV] may become more complex. That need not mean retesting 3945.00 but instead that overhead resistance around 4189.50 or 4213.40 is a temporary ceiling that keeps GC contained for a week or two.
S&P 500 Futures
Because the form present at the current high looks more like a ‘(B)’ rather than a completed impulse up from the low on October 17th, I have to reluctantly expect a retest or minor new high. Beware that things can go wrong so be careful if you try to bid this thing up. I expect we are due for at least a short-term consolidation since the S&P 500 has been nearly straight up after the test of 6659.50 on Friday. Supports at 6830.25 and 6792.50.
