Bonds
The good news is that ZB has finally poked up above 116^02 but the problem is can it hold? The short-term pattern isn’t very good but could work provided ZB doesn’t lose too much ground and recovers 116^02 on any dip quickly. The very best outcome for bulls would be for bonds to just slowly grind up, which would make my life difficult in counting it out but confirm that it is likely early in pushing up in a third.
Crude Oil
Nice to see crude moving down on Thursday after the test of the 62.30 target for a possible wave ii. Difficult to say how much further it pushes on this swing as it is very early in a possible wave iii, but I would think 58.10 is possible if not 56.90. Bigger picture, the first target is around 53.00 though I expect much lower in time.
Dollar Index
It is certainly a good sign to see DX above 99.00 but I do worry about a small retrace based on the location of the RSI at the top of the chart. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a retrace into the next cycle inflection on the 21st.
Euro
I’m pleased with how Euro has drifted lower the last few weeks, but it is probably best to assume a bounce before long that would take the Euro up to at least 1.1680 but likely higher to 1.1709 for the usual minimum for a wave [II]. Even then, more bounce is possible but one thing at a time.
Gold
Can I pound the table for the gold high being set? No, but I do think it is a good idea to lock in some profits or otherwise manage if you are long since 4628.60 has been tested.
S&P 500 Futures
I just can’t be excited about higher in the S&P 500 though a case can be made for one since 6927.25 held on Wednesday. There was some selling after reaching a retracement zone on Thursday but as you can see from the following charts, most of that drop has been erased in the overnight. I urge caution.
