Bonds
Nice to see the 114^25 area that I mentioned Friday evening hold and ZB rise up through 116^02 on Tuesday. I suspect this is just the beginning of what will be a pretty significant move that first targets the April high from last year and likely pushes through it. The intraday cycle is up into Wednesday late in the day but if the longer cycle on the daily chart kicks in, I suspect bonds will be bid into early March at a minimum before much of a retrace or consolidation.
Crude Oil
The pattern in crude oil would be improved with one more high, but it has already tested one target for a wave ii at 66.40. If at some point it begins to spend time under 60.88, I will have to conclude that wave ii is complete and starting the early stages of a wave iii down.
Dollar Index
I also would prefer a new swing low in DX but think this is a basing pattern. Sometimes the last swing falls short.
Euro
Like in DX, the form would look better with a new price extreme but if things were to go wrong, it is just from a bit higher at 1.1967.
Gold
Gold is now at first resistance for a bounce at 5099.60. Would be bulls are in trouble if GC drops under 4902.30 for any length of time.
S&P 500 Futures
Like many of the things I have looked at above, the pattern in SPX would be cleaner with another high but I worry that things can go wrong. I suspect the lower highs in the S&P 500 futures since January 28th invite bears to try their hand as it is a cheap fade for them with well-defined risk. If bulls are to step in again, they better do it no lower than 6917.75 or else lose control.
