Bonds
Finally a solid up day in ZB today as it hit first resistance for a possible low degree wave four. I think the overall form down from October 4th would be improved with one more low but it is very late in the move down from August. Think it very late to trade with a bearish bias but could also be a little early for an outright bullish bias. If ZB pushes over 121^31, odds that a bigger bounce develops increase.
Crude Oil
Crude still traveling sideways between 87.20 and 82.80. Perhaps CL is waiting for the next cycle inflection tomorrow to provide energy for the last leg up in ii.
Dollar Index
DX headed lower today which improves the chances of being somewhere inside a wave [iv]. I’m penciling this drop as iii of (c) of [iv] with a bit lower left in the wave iii. Next targets at 110.50 and109.70.
Euro
Euro is now accelerating up in a wave iii of (c) of [iv]. Minor resist at 1.0060 but likely pushes past to 1.0145 or 1.0240. The dominant cycle here is a little longer than the one in the DX chart. Both imply up into at least early November. I’m assuming that it manages to extend into late November or early December as late in the year often has important FX pivots.
Gold
With gold starting to push up through 1668.85 and the daily moving averages, it is likely that wave (iii) is set and now early in a wave (iv) bounce. Overhead targets to aim for at 1696.20 and 1710.80.
Equity
I’m generalizing the section this evening so as to add this New York Composite chart. Basically the same as the S&P 500 but worth noting that it is just short of the first target for (c) of [b]. Is that it? I doubt it but might be late in the first phase of the rally. Remember, I’m running with an ending diagonal idea for (c) till the price action says otherwise as I think it allows for the navigation of the hurdles to rising into later this year. Aside from resistance from this price target, with the dominant cycle not due to crest till late in the week and the momentum on the CCI looking good, I can’t see getting overly concerned.
A reasonable rise today in SPX that I still think is early in the development of (c) of [b]. The problem in the short-term is the tech earnings after the bell gave back much of the gains of the day. I’m giving bulls the benefit of the doubt and suggest that there is a morning low on Wednesday that holds 3783.