S&P 500
Let me start here since it is what I’ve been thinking about. Since looking at charts this last weekend, I noticed that early to mid-April shows up in cycles across asset classes. That has me thinking about this ending diagonal-like behavior may persist for a few more weeks.
Look at this chart of the daily S&P 500 futures as I find it elegant. Notice how well the modified Schiff channel is working. Why did I say ending diagonal-like earlier instead of ending diagonal? The last several weeks have been choppy with a positive bias which has had me thinking there is an ending diagonal in here somewhere. The problem is from where? Well, what if this isn’t an ending diagonal per se, but something that does share a similarity in that the waves shorten instead of extend. The first wave of an impulse usually isn’t the longest, but it does happen. The move up from the October low to December high has a five-wave look. After the correction into early January to the present, a very grindy advance. These creeper trends are something that I characterize as third wave as it is a sort of stealth strength. Whether the high in iii is set is unknown, but I do think that any retrace probably is still bought and will lead to a new high in April.
If we drop down into an intraday chart, the action today has the look of five waves up from the early morning low which could work for a (C) of [B] in a iv. Could they extend tomorrow to tap 5277-78? Certainly possible but I am reluctant say it is required. I wouldn’t be shocked if we find the market drifting lower overnight and down into midday. We will see. If the market starts to spend time under 5231, I will rate that as a negative and start looking lower.
Nasdaq 100 Futures
Now look at the following daily chart of NQ. Here, the move from the October low to December high has more of a three wave look which is consistent with an ending diagonal. Why does this matter? Well, a wave four in an ending diagonal should overlap the territory of wave two, which helps pick targets for the fourth wave. In this case, I have picked deep retrace values of the move between early January and the present.
Looking at an intraday chart of the NQ, I thought a rise from the morning low likely and happened to work out. Currently NQ is at the initial target for a [B] wave at 18290. If the market is above 18290 in the morning, fair to push for at least 18433.
Bonds
I’m not sure if this move in bonds down from early March is a wave [I] or [III] as it depends on if ‘b’ was back in February or in March. In either case, I think ZB has room to move lower in ‘c of (b)’.
Crude Oil
It isn’t clear if crude is working on a wave ii or if wave c of (b) is still in development. I refer back to the weekly chart to show what this would look like.
I know this is abbreviated in that I didn’t cover currencies or gold, but I’m under time constraints. To those that offered well wishes, thank you, I really appreciate it. To the new subscribers that have signed up recently, welcome and try to bear with me a while.