Bonds
Not much real change in ZB today as it continues to hug the daily moving averages. I’ve decided that it is probably prudent to call this move up from March 20th part of a two of some degree versus a fourth though technically a fourth would still be alive.
Crude Oil
Well, I was wrong in thinking that CL would retest 83.06 as crude stalled just under 82.40 today and fell late in the day along with the equity indices. Bears are in better shape when CL drops under 80.75 which I expect. But does that mean the high on March 19th was a wave ii? No, as the rise from December of last year might be an ending diagonal which would treat this drop as wave [IV] in development with a target of at least 78.80 if not slightly lower at 77.37.
Dollar Index
DX building a small base on top of 104.00 is a positive for higher.
Euro
Euro moved lower on Tuesday but that looks like the middle wave in a [II] on the intraday chart. I lean to Euro holding 1.0850 and rising to at least 1.0894 and probably a bit higher in the last leg of [II].
Gold
Gold had a sharp move down from a possible lower high on Tuesday, but not clear the bounce attempt is over. The move up from March 22nd low to March 26th lower high may not be all of [II] but just the first part. Another hypothesis is that there is a lower degree two required before breaking lower. Resist at 2206.80 and 2212.20.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures made a modest effort to stabilize and bounce in the morning of Tuesday but began to leak lower in the afternoon which turned into a cascade late in the day. I lean to treating the low of the day as a low degree third and the overnight bounce as a IV. I prefer another move down to get closer to 5255 so as to complete wave [A] of iv. The alternate would be to put a fourth or perhaps [A] at the late day low in a 3-3-3 formation. Not ideal in my book but possible.
Because I have been asked for the equivalent of 5255 in NQ, here is the NQ daily chart. I can’t give an exact analog as I’m less certain of the form, but I would put the range as 18448 to 18406.