Bonds
I’ve been thinking that ZB may have formed a ‘b’ wave triangle and now starting to push down in ‘c of (b).’ I will be monitoring the previous count as well that would treat this move down as a third in progress of ‘c of (b).’
Crude Oil
Time to promote the alternate count that treats everything since the March low of last year as a corrective formation. Should now be late in wave ‘[III] of c of (b).’ Note the negative divergence building on the CCI.
Dollar Index
DX continues to do well. I wouldn’t mind a minor retrace to retest the breakup from the descending trend line, but we will see.
Euro
I’d say that the Euro is relatively late in the first impulse down from the wave ii but probably has more room to drop in ‘[I] of iii.’
Gold
I know my view on gold is the outlier as I believe most analysts are excited by a move up out of a cup and handle type pattern. Could I be wrong? Yes of course, but I’m still refraining from getting on the bullish train. Note the negative divergence on the CCI at the bottom of the chart and that the RSI at the top of the chart is now in overbought territory. Next overhead Gann related target is 2297.70.
S&P 500 Futures
I think there is a good chance that the S&P 500 put in a wave iii high in the early morning today and now is in the early stages of a wave iv. First retrace value of note is 5266 which should act as a magnet in the near-term. I like the idea of a retrace over the next week or so that sets up one last push to a new high in early to mid-May. ‘Sell in May’ looks like the plan they are working with to me.
Russell 2000 Futures
The form in R2K may be a little easier to discern than in the other major indices as it is easier to make out a possible i-ii-[I]-[II] type count back in November that may put iii at this recent high.