Bonds
ZB slipped a little lower on Tuesday but is starting to slow. I think it best to allow a minor bounce is a low degree fourth wave before pushing for 111^24.
Crude Oil
CL has been moving sideways for a bit over a week. This certainly is fourth wave behavior. I’m open to a little lower in price but correcting in time is fine.
Dollar Index
DX is starting to pause which is reasonable considering that it is at a projected cycle high and overbought. Best to assume a minor consolidation before the next phase of advance.
Euro
Euro is starting to base in the lower time frames which is consistent with the forecast for a bounce. First overhead resistance at 1.0705.
Gold
Is the wave [III] high set in gold? I think the chances are fair but really it is up to the next geopolitical headlines. If the Israeli counter is modest, then yes, expect gold to drop under 2391.70 and push toward 2342.40, otherwise, GC could retest 2440.20.
S&P 500 Futures
A choppy day in the S&P 500 as it was stuck waiting for the Israeli counter. I think if the geopolitical headlines ease, we can expect the equity markets to bounce and, in my view, still make it to a new high. Bulls need to beat 5130.75 as a first step in climbing out of the hole.
Here is a chart of the percentage of S&P 500 components under the 20-day moving average. As you can see, it is up at the top of the range, suggesting SPX is oversold. The cycle here has been pretty steady and suggests an equity rise into May.