The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-05-02
NFP Eve
Bonds
ZB retested the high from yesterday and likely will push a little higher. Is the (b) wave low set? I think it would look a little better with one more low but I’m not confident in that at this point. So, it is safe to go long? I wouldn’t say that either. If ZB begins to push over 115^28, I will probably have to mark wave (b) as being complete and in the early stages of (c) up.
Crude Oil
Crude fell a little lower today to test a deep retrace value on the daily chart, 78.60, before stabilizing enough to form a doji candle. The wave [IV] idea is still alive but with this deep of a retrace, it would be foolish to rule out the possibility that the (b) wave high is already set and a bounce will only make it to a lower high instead of a new swing high. Bulls don’t have much to work with till CL is above 79.50 and later 80.65.
Dollar Index
As I mentioned yesterday, it looks like DX needs to move lower to at least test 104.98.
Euro
I’m still not sure which corrective form is active, the one depicted on the daily chart where the last low was a [B] and now up in [C] of ii, or the one on the intraday chart, an (A)-(B)-(C) up from the last low. Using the latter, Euro is now at the first possible target at 1.0760.
Gold
Gold was held back by the daily moving averages today but looks like it should make another attempt to break above on Friday.
S&P 500 Futures
There was a retest of support early this morning before a relatively steady climb to recover most of the advance made on Wednesday afternoon. I continue to give bulls a chance to push up to a new high. Will see if any correction on Friday morning holds above 5067.50. A reasonable first target overhead is at 5141.25.
