The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-05-22
FOMC minutes take a toll but Nvidia rides to the rescue
Bonds
My assumption is that ZB is working on a [B] of ii prior to dropping under the daily moving averages in [C] of ii.
Crude Oil
CL made an initial attempt to climb out of the hole today but ran into resistance at the 20 period EMA on the 240-minute chart. After that attempt failed, CL pushed lower to the next support at 76.90. I think this is a good place to fish for a long trade in anticipation of a [C] wave up. Bulls need CL above 77.80 to feel good about it.
Dollar Index
DX is acting in a promising way as it attacks overhead resistance at 104.90. Bulls want to see DX build a little base on top of 104.90.
Euro
Euro dropped into lower support at 1.0820 and is currently working to recover 1.0850. I think it best to allow another high on the swing to complete [C] of ii.
Gold
Gold confirmed that the wave [III] high was set when GC dropped under 2406.50. I’m marking this down as wave (A) of [IV] in development. Minor support at 2355.60 but may try for a little lower after a small bounce.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 took a dive after the FOMC minutes but held the shallow support at 5305.00 and bounced hard late in the day prior to the Nvidia earnings. We see that the good earnings drove the S&P 500 up into the next wave [III] target range of 5355.00 to 5361.50 overnight. I think it best to allow a retrace at this point, especially if ES drops back under 5345.50.
