The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-05-28
Slow news day after a three-day weekend
Bonds
Nice to see bonds pushing down under 116^15 which confirms wave [C] of ii is in progress. There might be a small bounce from 115^07 but it looks like it has business down in the 114 handle.
Crude Oil
Crude had a sharp rise on Tuesday which should be part of the expected [C] of ii up. The initial target has been hit at 80.20 but I expect higher targets at 81.20 or 82.50 to be hit. Short-term bulls have nothing to worry about while CL is above 78.80.
Dollar Index
DX didn’t really move much on Tuesday. I can’t say with certainty that the wave ii is complete while DX is under 104.90.
Euro
Not clear that wave (IV) of [C] of ii is done. I’m giving short-term bulls the benefit of the doubt to push for another swing high while above 1.0805.
Gold
On further reflection, I wonder if I’m wrong on moving wave [III] to the May high in gold, perhaps it was instead a (B) wave in a developing [IV]. If so, we could be relatively late in (C) of [IV] with the next target at 2322.75 followed by 2311.30.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 behaved much as I would think on a slow news day after a three-day weekend. We had a slip lower to test the bottom of the recent range followed by a late day recovery. In the early hours of Wednesday as I type this, those late day gains are being erased. If S&P 500 futures fall under 5280.75, the next major target is 5244.25. If 5280.75 holds, we could easily see the top of the range tested later on Wednesday or Thursday.
