The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-05-08
Crude gets a lift
Bonds
ZB is slipping back a bit which isn’t too much of a surprise given the overbought RSI. I’m leaning to a little higher to form a five-wave advance before retracing to create a higher low.
Crude Oil
Crude finally showed some signs of life today by pushing up to the first target for the first leg of a wave ii bounce. I prefer the 38% retracement for wave [A] which is at 80.63.
Dollar Index
DX is on plan climbing up out of the last retracement and trying to push up through 105.57.
Euro
It looks like a wave two of some degree has completed in the Euro but need just a little lower for confirmation. If a wave [III] kicks off with a drop under 1.0743, first target is 1.0588 though expect much lower later.
Gold
Little to say about gold as it is stuck between 2346.75 and 2298.65. I favor an upside break but doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to do so. The danger is gold has set a major high already and early in reversal.
S&P 500 Futures
The action today is consistent with a lower degree fourth prior to pushing up in the last segment of wave [III]. I still think S&P 500 futures have unfinished business at 5239.25 to 5250.25, perhaps even more but we will see.
